I suppose progress is two steps forward and one backwards. A few months ago everything just seemed rosy, and world peace was actually at hand, or rather, after the shift of American push policy towards the palestinians and the israeli, things have turned for the worse. Well I suppose the Ukraine conflict is also a spoke in the wheel. Russia is down in positive ratings, now Israel is down in ratings. Luckily the Vatican state is still running high, as well as the US.
Anyway, this calls for reflection, are we really heading for another cold war scenario? Or are these things just bumps on the road?
First of all, if we look at the political alignment, that defines who are really enemies, the alignment does not call for another cold war. Russia is not anymore the communist behemoth, but is actually trying to find its own roots, and rekindle its glory. So the antagonism does not dig that deep.
If we look at the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, it has changed in character, this conflict used to be a proxy war between the West and East. But as we speak, it is truly just a local war, but it has tremendous and devastating potential.
The new antagonism is between the world and what I have defined as islamism. Or rather it is between a renaissance Islam and the rest of the word. Islamist truly believe that Islam will rule the world.
This is only a part of Islam, and does not include all of the Muslim world. Recently the major Muslim states have drawn away from it, and that was actually the basic crux around which the first part of Mr. Barack Obamas presidency revolved. We tried to push back the radical version of Islam, and actually did it by pushing back Ahmadinejad, and supporting Mr. Al-Sisi. This gave a whole new positive progression within the Muslim world, and actually hope for progress both spiritual as well as materially.
There is only one ager dabei; the islamists are still here, and obviously they are not just going away.
In Ukraine we are putting pressure on the wrong parties. In the west we try to put pressure of Putin, and on the east we are trying to put pressure on the Ukraine government, and as Ukraine is supported mainly by EU and the US, the pressure is basically put on they west.
The fight is absolutely meaningless, and the pressure will not go anywhere. No one wants to start a Third World War now when people have started thinking, so the obvious conclusion is not to put pressure for this to happen, but to put pressure on our allies for them to go to the negotiation table.
The US needs to realize, that the Second World War and First World War is still so much in the imaginations of Europeans, that we will simply not enter another war. So we cannot be persuaded to pressure Putin. It will not happen.
The conflict will continue to exist until either one side has won, or a comprise is found.
Why not try the compromise? Is this not what peacemaking is about?
Through dialogue, find a way to solve the problems?
At least, this would be an ethical path to pursue.
G-d bless the will to find a way.
If we look at the broad picture of the Middle East right now, there are tremendous work for the peacemakers, and some of the less enlightened keep on wrangling with their destiny in the material world. The gates of paradise are closing in on them as each minute goes. Lifes are thrown away without any sense, and the mechanics of tit for tat is ripe with bounty.
But, behind the scenes true missionaries for peace awaits. In general all who truly believe in Abraham and his descendants heed his ideas and work with diligence for peace. The makings of a new era is abound, and we will seize this opportunity with or without the help of the leaders of specific countries.
It is all about diplomacy. Some say that the pen is weaker than the sword, some say that the pen is stronger than the sword, but it will come to a realization some day.
We will continue the dream of Abraham and Moses, we will not accept the luring of the material world, and we will realize the advent of religion.
There are good things happening, and bad things, but it all comes to will of spirit, are we on his side, or are we against him? Do we think too much on our own needs or do we share and realize the unbound feeling of connection.
I do realize, that we have to protect ourselves against the warriors of darkness, but to what extent, to the extent that it just does not make any sense, especially if there are more wise paths to chose.
The reign of G-d cannot be stopped now, this is my feeling, no matter how much the leaders try to fight it.
This is just a dream, but that dream has a hold in many people of different religion, so that one day man will live in peace, without the need to destroy each other.
One day, mankind will unite as one, and shed the need to war and destroy, and if we realize that dream, we are truly the heirs to Adam, and not to Eve.
G-d bless the will to see clearly in this terrible, destructive situation.
To counter the threat of Hamas, we need to have a strategy. Without a strategy, there will be no victory, with a well devised strategy, we will win.
Let us try to recap the current situation, and discuss the strategic advantages and disadvantages of the situation.
The current strategy of invasion and destruction of tunnels and so on is basically what you in Clausewitz terms would call a French Revolution scenario. Napoleon used fear to subdue his opponents, and he won his wars in that way.
So again, we are talking psychology, and use of fear tactics. In order for this to work, it really has to be scary, and target the most vulnerable parts of the enemy.
Are we doing that? No, we are going after specific tunnel openings and trying to find a way to infiltrate Gaza. Ok, seen from a strictly operational perspective this may make some sense, but as a strategy, it is totally stupid. Either you use fear tactics to your advantage, or you do not. Right now we are doing something in the middle. It will not work.
If we look at the past, this is EXACTLY the lesson we can learn, in the war with Hezbollah and other past wars with Hamas or the PLO, we have focused on the material game, having not the slightest clue about the psychological game, and as a very natural consequence we lost. Maybe not in the ground game, but the image or perception of Israel was dragged through the mud over and over again. So we lost the psychological game.
I have supported Israel staunchly for some time now, and consequently the victories I have had, as the initiation of the peace talks with Iran, the rise of Sisi is rightfully put at the feet of Israel. So Israel has dragged itself up from the very deep hole it has dug for itself in the conflicts with the Palestinians.
Well, you can go on digging deep holes for Israel, or you might discuss the idea of changing tactics.
So, I advised a precise hard hitting strategy that involved only the IAF and the clandestine operations. Why? Well first of all, because it will put Hamas at a serious disadvantage. They need the pictures to win the psychological war. But if they never know when or where we hit, they cannot construct all the killings of their own children.
The strategy has been used to a great efficiency by Obama for some time. The constant search for leaders of Taliban and other Islamist insurgents has really payed off.
So what are the reflections? First of all tech has always been the edge of western culture. First it was the Viking vessels, then the cannons, then the machine gun, then the flying fighter bomber.
So to use this advantage, we need to use the newest tech. The newest tech are the robots. This does not include no action by shin bet, on contrary, it should be used as a complementary to shin bet.
But the good thing about using spooks combined with high tech precision targeting, is the fact, that the media will not be feeded with pictures.
Then there is another reflection. When Alexander the Great beat Darius the Persian prince, he did it with 44 thousand grunts against 3 hundred thousand enemy fighters, or even more.
How did he do that? By using the weaknesses of the enemy against themselves. As Hamas, the Persians were a motley crue of soldiers gathered at the occasion. I was only held together through a strong dictation by the prince. This was acknowledged by Alexander, so he went for the prince, and routed him. When the prince was routed, the army fell to pieces.
The situation in Ukraine is slowly turning ugly again. Please do not do the same mistake as Israel have just been done, and rush into another senseless fight. Why do we fight? Is it to win? To gain territory? To entrust the public with a sense of justice of security? There is no winning scenario in Ukraine. If the fighting continues, it will just lead to more misery and reduce the peace of the world.
We therefor need to start the talking, Ukraine needs to crawl down from its ultimate demands, and initiate the discussion about a solution.
If we just continue on this course, well there will be nothing more to fight over because people will be dead or the land you are fighting over will be desolate.
Start discussing the endgame, what is it you want. Just revenging will not lead to any solution, and remember you are all Slavs, so why do you fight?
G-d bless a peaceful solution.
Ok, to understand the current strategical situation, please let me explain some of the basics of what I have been teaching over the last five years and has changed the basics of warfare.
Soviet strategy was far beyond western warfare. Despite being seriously outnumbered and extremely weak when it came to economics, Russia, and the soviets in general managed to conduct at very, very efficient war against the west. Something we still have not totally recovered from.
What did they do? They used, unscrupulously, the new science of psychology. When they wanted to turn a country, a set of very precisely defined stages was conducted. First they used the cultural and political life to demoralize the target. Think the anti atomic bomb movement for instance, what was that good for. The soviets of cause.
Then they infiltrated media in a very cunning way, used communist and socialist groups to demoralize the target country, by assigning them specific tasks, and supporting any movements that was in their favor.
One of the great successes of the Soviet Union was to garner a tremendous in country resistance against the Vietnam war. So spooks in the US worked against their own countries. Thereby giving the Vietnamese an easy victory. They fought very well, but had it not been for the psychological mind games KGB played with the American public, they would have lost.
So, this is the point, it is all about mind games for the soviets.
Enter Hamas, who were very well tought by KGB, they used to be an asset of KGB, and there you have it. Another pawn playing mind games.
If we do not control the onslaught of IDF, we will be at the rear position. Hamas will only need one good picture, and the entire war effort will be theirs. To really beat an enemy, you need to understand how they think. Hamas are Cold War fighters. They fight in soviet style. That is manipulation with media, trying to demoralize the enemy. So if Israel just see it as a territorial war with aim to reduce the fighting power of Hamas, we are only looking at a small part of the scheme.
It is all about media.
Add to this the fact that Hamas power is not solely embedded in Gaza, fighting them only there will not really help. We need to see it in a much broader perspective.
As the situation stands, it is like this. The Arabs are tired of Hamas, they wish for peace and process. The wise Persians wish for peace, and the peace process to succeed, so much is invested. Then there is the Americans, the Russians, all the churches and not to mention me.
So the entire system is ready for peace, and this is the problem for Hamas and for Isil. They need chaos.
In the past Israel was stopped in its progress, why. Because of lack of luck in the fight in the media.
So we need to keep an eye on that fight. If we get just one bad picture it is over. And look at it this way. If we win the battle in the media, the Arabs will stop funding Hamas, and the. They are gone!
Without too much bloodshed we can stop Hamas. But if we get involved I the tit for tat revenge system, we loose all the progress we ha e made. It took us years to get this far, and everything is balancing on the very, very sharp edge of a knife. Be careful, and please instead of just using the might of your arm, use that sling of David. Because only with the sling can we win.
G-d bless the beautiful dream of Yesrael.
What will happen is, more or less like this; after a few days with rising civilian casualties, the positive support for Israel that we did make after we commenced a careful bombs only campaign will falter. It will take two to three days. What will be the determining factor will be the amounts of civilian casualties. So the Palestinians will do everything they can to photoshop, put a horde of small girls in front of us and so on. Eventually they will get their picture, and it will turn the tide.
Remember it is about the moral high ground. We are supposed to hold that.
If and when that happens. We will lose. If we lose, it will be a major setback for the entire effort against Islamism. I will also lead to demoralization, the shame of the current presidency, and a weaker voice for the lightbringers.
If we pull out after a few scores, it will show that we can show restraint. This will give us the necessary time to rebuilt the confidence lost in the current ground offensive.
It is a contest on ethics, and when we lose the moral high ground, we lose the ground game.
The material world is like this; it will call its siren song to us, and if we heed it, we will be sucked into the maw. Right now it is sucking us in, and if we do not pull out, we will be lost in it for a long, long time. We have to stay afloat, and be sharp on this otherwise we will not reach our destination.
G-d bless the will to be patient.
I see that IDF have entered Gaza. That is a huge mistake. Hamas looks for only one thing. What they call a “victory picture”. That is a picture where some Israeli can be depicted as a tyrant. Preferably something involving a small girl.
With all the troops on ground, this possibility has just risen tremendously. If we do not pull the troops back, we will loose, because they will get their picture.
So this is my advice, stay calm. Be careful, do not rush, otherwise we will lose.
G-d bless the will of the patient.
I am a sailor. Not one of those ancient sailors, who roamed the sevens seas with death and glory as their followers, but just a normal seaman with a small vessel. We do a little competition in it, and then we go on summer holiday, me and the smallish family.
Yesterday was a very cool, but rough day. I ventured over a small strait called Kattegat, and in my 23 footer, it was a bit of a rough ride with waves as tall as my eyesight, and a bit bobbing up and dawn. It made me think though.
When you sail, especially in a small boat, and the riding is rough, you feel the wrath of nature. If you happen to fall over the boat, and that is pretty much an option, you will die a slow death of cooling down.
So you sit there with your life in your own hands, and if you do not control your boat, you will die.
This is a lesson that has been lost on us after we left the boats. The wrath of the ocean, the smallishness of our being. It brings a certain humility to be cast from here to there, and you start to feel the pain in your arm from tearing at the steering wheel over and over again, as you surf up and down the waves.
When you are out there on the sea, you really long for home. But to get there you have to be patient. There are no easy fixes, no fast tracking, no cheating. You have to look at your gear, and just get on with it.
I am really sorry about the situation in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army seems to have grown absolutely callous and unrealistic on their power. The only reason why Putin has not fought them down, is because he is responsible as a world power. It is extremely painful for the Russian patriots to see their brethren suffering as they do.
Again, let us be reasonable, let he peacetalks start, do not just use your might, but be honest towards your goals.
I really advice the Americans to look at Russia, and see their actions for what they are; responsible, honest and worthy a true world power.
Putin can be reasoned with and talked with, please do that, he is a good man, and can be dealt with on a good basis.
G-d bless the wise and the true.
We are entering another phase of the ongoing feud with the so called Palestinians. First they thought they had us, and could use the normal methods of attack and then manipulate the media to their advantage.
Not this time, the world is different, and their ideology is not that popular anymore. The shift from socialism to Islamism is not that wise, if you want to keep the sympathy of the world.
So Egypt proposed a truce, that was not met, and now Hamas is trying a new negotiation on better terms for Hamas.
Well there is one aber dabei. The leverage Hamas used to have has diminished considerably, and therefor the terms should reflect this.
Be real, if Hamas want a truce, well ok, we can have that, but it should at least be a truce that reflect the situation.
Secondly, I would advise Israel to take it easy. The negation situation is to our advantage, and we do not therefor need to haste.
The end result should be a truce that will, truly give peace, not just some temporary stop in the fighting. So to be realistic, this would include some kind of termination of the power of Hamas. It can either be done by eliminating their infrastructure, or it can be done by making a deal.
But the wise waits for the right result. Do not shake on the hand, and acts with providence at exactly the right time.
G-d bless those who are wise and patient.
I remember reading Hegel. Hegel is the predecessor of the current socialist paradigm, that practically rules the world. (Marx saw himself as a follower and a rebel towards Hegel). Hegel has this one little piece of light that shone through one of his books. He said that G-d would open the gates of heaven and a beam of light would descend upon the nation of Germany. Well, after a long walk in the dark, finally this beam has once again illuminated Germany. Lost in the dark after the second world war, antisemitism, the abuse of all that was German in way by Hitler. Then through a long walk after the war, and now, with all the traditional values it has won the world cup.
Germany is a mix of Danish culture, Christian/Jewish culture and Roman culture. The discipline setup by the Romans, is mixed with the positive Christian culture, and then as a final ingredient the warrior culture of Denmark is the basis.
You could see this in the field. The discipled manschaft was never broken and rarely under true pressure. The team worked as a team, and really seem to like each other. But finally, the krieger, Bastian Schweinsteiger, arose and straight-backed and mighty, defended the colors of his tribe.
At the other hand, Argentina was extremely good, but at a day where the individual does not live up to his full potential it all flounders. At the other hand, it was well fought by the glorious Argentinians, and may they arise again with their pride intact.
Finally, I believe that Brazil will acknowledge after the world cup, that being a host is not about winning, it is the opposite, it is about being a good host. Showing the qualities of a country. Brazil has done exactly that. Given the world the feeling of a football crazy nation, supporting the all the guests with warmth and actually precision and order. This calls for an international appraise.
G-d bless you all, will you all prosper in the light of the maker.
We are entering a more peaceful phase of the war between Israel and Hamas. In the ancient times when Israel was first ejected and stood tall, there were numerous wars with the surrounding tribes and empires. When Israel was at its greatest under David, it understood and fought the wars to its benefit. This was a commandment that came directly from Moses, who dreamed of a monotheistic nation, under the rule of G-d. This initiation of monotheism, is therefor not all liberal, but somewhere in between, because David and Moses were also great believers in justice and love.
To really connect to the spirit of Israel as it stood the first time, we need to find that balance between at one hand defense of Israel and all it’s values, and at the other hand a firm understanding of justice and love in warfare.
David defeated Goliath, and I believe we all see the beauty in that, why? Because it underscores a basic paradigm of Davidian prowess. He was at his best when he was fighting against innumerable odds. Why? Because there is absolutely nothing wrong in fighting against a supreme enemy who wants to defeat you with his might. It forced David to use skill and intelligence. The same he did when he was excommunicated into the desert and came back to Israel with a motley crue of fighters and won the day for Israel again.
So what are the teaching of this? First of all, David fought not with superior numbers he fought with courage and skill. He sought the solution that would use his superior skill (using a sling at close range to hit an eye is almost impossible). He fought with audacity, not worrying too much about his own safety.
One of the very overlooked tradegies of the current development of the Isil held parts of Syria, is the destruction of ancient relics. So far Isil have only destroyed Iranian holy sites, and not the older and, to the east and west, more significant objects.
Think about it as the birth cradle of democracy, religion, natural science, rule of law, writing in fact most of what we today see as the foundation of our own culture. It was invented here. First in the town of Eridu (Eden in the bible) and then Ur and Babylon.
The rule of law for example was invented in its modern form by the king Hammurabi of Babylon.
Will Isil respect these relics, that are, by all means also a part of their own history, or will they destroy it.
If they do, we are even more compelled to stop them. It would simply but an outrage, and a loss for all of humanity in the future.
G-d bless the protection of ancient culture.